The baby tree went to Hong Kong to list the countdown and pushed the e-commerce to be disgusted. The monthly users fell nearly half.

A few days ago, according to media reports, China’s mother and baby community platform baby tree will go to Hong Kong on November 22, it is expected to determine the price range on November 7, plans to raise $ 800 million. China Merchants Securities, Haitong International and Morgan Stanley are the joint sponsors of the IPO, UBS is its chief financial adviser and Fosun Hengli is the joint financial advisor.

According to the data, the baby tree, established in 2007, started in the maternal and child community and has been involved in E-Commerce, early education and knowledge payment. Nowadays, although the business scope of Baby Tree seems to be rich, under the “searchlights” of the capital market, some hidden concerns have already been exposed.

Main business revenue growth slowed down

Monthly live users drop nearly half

According to the prospectus submitted by the baby tree on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, its operating income consists of three parts: advertising, E-Commerce and knowledge payment.

According to the prospectus, from 2016 to 2017, Baby Tree’s advertising revenue was 268 million yuan and 372 million yuan, accounting for 52.6% and 51.0% of total revenue; E-Commerce revenue was 240 million yuan and 333 million yuan respectively. The total revenue was 47.1% and 45.6%; the income from knowledge payment was 1.687 million yuan and 24.456 million yuan, accounting for 0.3% and 3.4% of the total revenue.

Although the advertising business has brought a very large income to the baby tree, the uncertainties and risks in the future are also beginning to stand out.

According to the prospectus, the advertising business income of Baby Tree mainly comes from a small number of customers. Among the advertisers who have reached a partnership with Baby Tree, the top five advertisers have generated a 25.7% profit for Baby Tree. At the same time, from 2016 to 2017, the growth rate of baby tree advertising revenue was 60.5% and 38.8%, respectively, and the growth rate declined. The growth rate of the E-Commerce income of the baby tree has also slowed down noticeably. From 2016 to 2017, the growth rate of baby tree E-Commerce revenue was 627.3% and 38.8%, respectively.

Zhuang Shuai, founder of Bailian Consulting, told the “Securities Daily” reporter that “Because the launch of the E-Commerce business of Baby Tree is relatively late, it is not yet fully mature, and the future is bound to be affected by platform competition and inventory. Especially in the competition In the fierce mother and baby market, the baby business of the baby tree will usher in a fight.”

In contrast, some of the competitors of the baby tree in the maternal and child market have shown a rapid development.

According to the 2018 maternal and child consumption market research report released by MobData, in the TOP10 ranking of the active penetration rate of maternal and child E-Commerce APP, Babe.com, child king and honey bud are in the top three, while the baby tree’s maternal and child E-Commerce Mama is only ranked tenth.

According to the latest parent-child mother-to-child APP industry report released by Aurora Big Data, the most popular mother-child vertical E-Commerce platforms for parent-child mother-child APP users are Beibei.com, Kid Wang, Honey Bud, Big V, and Leyou.

In addition, the profitability of the baby tree is also not optimistic. According to the prospectus, from 2015 to 2017, the annual loss of baby trees was -2.86 billion, -9.35 billion yuan, -9.11 billion yuan, and the net profit margins were -143.2%, -183.3%, -124.9%. This also means that the accumulated loss of the baby tree for three years is as high as 2.131 billion yuan.

Although the above losses can be attributed to the difference in the fair value calculation of preferred stocks under the International Accounting Standards and the realization of turning losses into profit in 2016, the adjusted net profit in 2017 reached 139 million yuan, but never achieved profitability from the baby tree for three years. Look, its future profitability is equally worrying.

According to Bloomberg News in September this year, as of June 30, the number of active users of the baby tree month was almost sloppy, down to 89.5 million, compared with 177.2 million in the same period last year; the total merchandise business transaction volume (GMV) fell to 557.7 million yuan, the same period last year. It was 80.71 million yuan; the number of paid users fell to 2.7 million, compared with 3.6 million in the same period last year.

In this regard, Zhuang Shuai believes that “eagerness to IPO has led to the promotion of E-Commerce business with a proportion of up to 45%, causing users to resent. Because community management emphasizes the feelings of users and platforms rather than interests. It is nakedly used by various means to let users spend money to buy. This kind of conflict will be counterproductive, not only causing the user data to decline, nor can it effectively improve the GMV.”

Integrated E-Commerce

In-line competition is intensifying

Aside from the data in the prospectus, the baby tree is currently facing some difficulties in terms of the industry environment. Today’s maternal and child E-Commerce market is not fragmented and independent. In particular, integrated E-Commerce and cross-border sea scouring E-Commerce companies represented by Jingdong and Ali have entered the game and have launched a strong challenge to the baby tree. Winning in some ways.

According to the “2018 China maternal and infant industry market size forecast and development prospects analysis” report, the online transaction volume of maternal and infant channels in 2018 may reach 760 billion yuan. Specifically, the comprehensive E-Commerce maternal and child in the online channel includes Haitao accounting for 62%, the market transaction volume is 470 billion yuan; the vertical E-Commerce ratio is 19%, the transaction scale is 140 billion yuan; the brand/retailer self-built electricity Commercial channels accounted for 13%, and the transaction scale was 100 billion yuan; the content/tools E-Commerce sector accounted for 6%, and the transaction scale was 50 billion yuan.

Although the online channel of maternal and child goods has experienced a period of rapid expansion, the growth rate has slowed down. From the absolute number of market shares, offline channels are still mainstream, accounting for 77%. The integrated E-Commerce companies based on Jingdong, Ali and Suning are also expanding to the offline, among which maternal and baby products are also one of their entry points.

According to the data, in April this year, Jingdong announced that it has more than 1,000 maternal and child offline stores, and it is expected that there will be more than 5,000 by 2019. At the end of 2017, Tmall smart mother and baby room successively landed in Beijing, Shanghai and Hangzhou. In March of this year, Tmall mother and baby announced that they would continue to open new smart stores, and also cooperate with Yintai and Bailian to build a store. Flash shop.

Zhuang Shuai pointed out that “the construction of E-Commerce supply chain is a very large project, and the concentration of maternal and child brands is very high, which belongs to the standard. This is exactly the category that Jingdong is best at. But the chain of vertical maternal and child stores is also Let the large-scale E-Commerce platform such as Jingdong and Tmall feel the pressure, not to mention the vertical E-Commerce such as the baby tree dominated by the community.”

In addition, some maternal and child social platforms have already begun to lay down the line. According to the data, maternal and child E-Commerce honey buds began to deploy offline business as early as 2015. Currently, they have rapidly expanded offline channels through joint venture education institutions, offline self-operated retail stores, children’s parks, and acquisitions.

Therefore, for the baby tree, how to deal with the protrusion of the offline channel is also one of the urgent considerations. Of course, with the full implementation of the national second-child policy and the further release of the demographic dividend, there are also opportunities for baby trees.

Some industry analysts believe that “the maternal and child market is still a blue ocean, and there are still many ways to play in the future of the baby tree. For example, give up the E-Commerce business, focus on the community; pay through knowledge and E-Commerce shopping guide profit.”

According to the data, in June of this year, Baby Tree announced a strategic strategic cooperation with Alibaba. The two sides will cooperate in E-Commerce, C2M, advertising marketing, knowledge payment, new retail, online and offline mother-child scenarios.